Highlights
High street spending showed some signs of recovery at the start of the current quarter as real retail sales rose a much as expected 0.4 percent on the month. The October gain followed an upward revised 0.4 percent advance in September (was flat) and left volumes 3.4 percent higher than a year ago.
The October increase was led by a 2.1 percent monthly jump in purchases of clothing and footwear. This was compounded by a 1.1 percent rise in sales in the household goods sector and a 0.9 percent gain at non-specialised stores. Non-store retailing also did well again with sales up a healthy 1.7 percent. With the other stores area down 1.4 percent, total non-food purchases rose 0.6 percent on the month and 3.5 percent on the year.
Food stores saw demand slip 0.1 percent from September for annual growth of 1.6 percent.
The ONS indicated that the upward revision to September's spending would have no significant impact upon third quarter real GDP. Nonetheless, the higher starting point at least increases the likelihood of a positive contribution to the bottom line from the high street in the current period.
That said, there is some risk that the October data were flattered by worries about the recent postal strike. This could have brought forward Christmas spending at the expense of November and December.
This report will boost hopes that positive growth in real GDP will finally return in the fourth quarter. Still the figures are hardly robust enough to make the BoE change its immediate view on monetary policy. It may be that the QE ceiling will not be raised again but even if this is the case, any hike in interest rates is most likely some way down the road yet.
Definition Retail sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell durable and nondurable goods.
Why Investor's Care With consumer spending a large part of the economy, market players continually monitor spending patterns. The monthly retail sales report contains sales data in both pounds sterling and volume. UK retail sales data exclude auto sales.
The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth.
Retail sales not only give you a sense of the big picture, but also the trends among different types of retailers. Perhaps apparel sales are showing exceptional weakness but electronics sales are soaring. These trends from the retail sales data can help you spot specific investment opportunities, without having to wait for a company's quarterly or annual report.